Bihar, MP can be India's new granaries

A 2002 United Nations projection puts the global population at 8.9 billion by 2050. Of this mass of humanity, Indians will account for 1.5 billion, probably overtaking the Chinese. Estimates have it that India, Pakistan, Nigeria, US, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Congo might well make up half the world's population in a little more than four decades from now.

A sudden inversion from the complacence of being a food "surplus" nation, has brought home some hard truths to India's political leadership. The flipside of poverty reduction and an expanding middle class means that the demand for better diets is rising. And this adds up to the future arriving early for India. Even as it aspires to superpowerdom, growth is proving to be painful.

As things stand, Indian agriculture's productivity remains poor, with studies showing the total factor productivity growth declining from the 1980s by 1.21% till the mid-'90s. Ten years on, as food management has become a round-the-year job, India's agriculture is caught in the warp of political battles over farmers' suicides and the urge for pro-rural populism.

With food prices contributing majorly to inflation in the past two years, there has been some urgent soul-searching in government. The answers that are emerging might point to the need for a second green revolution, but this time in regions that could have the potential to provide for India's new millions — east UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Already planners are examining whether a judicious minimum support price formula can be used to help spur agriculture in fertile, but under-utilised areas which might do better.

North Bihar's fields are as green as those in Punjab. But decades of neglect have driven the rural economy under. The countryside is littered with closed cold storages, grain mills and agro factories. In many villages, a third of the population is away, earning wages in areas as diverse as north-east and Jammu and Kashmir. On the other hand, Gujarat's extension programme has pushed wheat production up by 33% over the last season. Acreage has also increased.

The food crisis has forced a sharp re-examination of India's approach to bio-fuels. Though it never considered diversion of food crops, the government is now cautious about the programme, preferring to concentrate more on dryland farming as it is felt that this, along with a fresh impetus in states outside the green bowls of Haryana and Punjab, can meet India's needs over the next decade. This would give India the breather it needs while it puts together a a strategy to modernise its agriculture.

What is apparent is that despite the political interests built into farm policies, the profligacy of mountainous subsidies cannot go on for ever. It will need a government with the will and numbers to tackle issues like a fertiliser subsidy bill that has topped Rs 1,00,000 crore this year. India can hardly afford to forget that the new, hottest currency in the world is food.