
The ice has been broken by Sonia and Nitish
and alarger coalition platform. On the other side, aresolute Congress believes it has to oust Lalu to regain its status in Bihar, and aCongress- JD( U)- Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP combine is adream- team for the job. The new secular alliance could not only break Lalu’s invincible Yadav- Muslim combine and woo the minorities on its side; the upper castes could be persuaded to leave the BJP too, and together with the extreme backward castes (EBCs), Dalits and non- OBCs, it could become awinning combine in caste- ridden Bihar. So, how will the Congress break the news to Lalu, who has been asteadfast ally? “The Congress believes Lalu has gained more from the alliance and is determined to let realpolitik decide the course,” says an insider. “There can also be a larger secular alliance at the Centre which could have both Lalu and Nitish. Lalu will have to concede space to others.” Meanwhile, the JD( U) has already made its displeasure with the BJP known —the most recent fracas over the sharing of seats in Karnataka saw astung JD( U) walking out and going it alone. As the JD( U)’ schief negotiator points out, “The BJP was arrogant despite knowing that most of its people were from the Dal, not the RSS. We have a common Lingayat base and had we got together, the BJP would have won. Now we have shown we are not irrelevant by smashing the BJP’s chances of getting an absolute majority. The JD( U) can impact in 20- 22 seats.” In Bihar, if Nitish is not inviting the BJP’s ire by effecting a Cabinet reshuffle without consulting the party, he has distanced himself from the BJP’s communal image by raising the demand for reservation for Dalit Muslims, launching a10- point welfare programme for minorities and reopening the infamous Bhagalpur riot cases of 1989 which had claimed athousand lives. In one swoop he has also dealt ablow to Lalu's claim as a “Muslim messiah”. Lalu has retaliated by stoking dissent in the JD( U), backing rebels like Arun Kumar and Upendra Kushwaha; the latter floated aparallel state unit accusing Nitish of ignoring Dalits and backwards. But as a party source says, “The success of the new alliance will depend on whether Nitish can split the RJD or create alarger secular alliance with several other restive allies of the BJP. But the Congress and Nitish are already planning for 2009.”
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