In Bihar, is it advantage Nitish?

''I know Nitish Kumar, only Nitish Kumar, no one else but Nitish Kumar,'' said Dr. Ejaz Ali, Rajya Sabha Member. That was April 2008.

Nitish Kumar's Muslim mascot, a doctor
campaigning for Dalit Muslim reservations nominated to Rajya Sabha by Nitish as part of his strategy to break Laloo's monopoly over the Muslim vote.

He said, ''Nitish has given me an opportunity to take my mission to Parliament. In return, I will mobilise Muslim votes for him.''

In March 2008, Dr Ejaz Ali said, "Not just Dalit Muslims, all Muslims are happy with Nitish Kumar. But this election will elect a PM, not a CM.''

But, on poll eve, he told us that Nitish's journey into the Muslim vote has hit a roadblock.

It is 2009. And DR Ejaz Ali says, ''Can't the Bihar Muslims understand that if they vote for JD(U), they will help L K Advani become PM?''

It's the Advani Factor, that JD(U) held out to back its bid for two more seats.

In 2004, JD (U) contested 24 seats. In 2009, JD (U) staked claim to 26 seats.

Madhubani and Kishanganj - both were places with a large Muslim population - where JD(U) argued it had a greater chance of winning.

Finally, the BJP had to concede Kishanganj.

It is not simply the loss of a seat. The BJP in Bihar faces a larger dilemma of a Chief Minister rising high in the popularity stakes, threatening to overshadow the national partner .

If Nitish's rise is worrying BJP, it's causing even greater stress to Laloo Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan - alliance partners at the Centre, but rivals at home .

''Over the last three years, Nitish Kumar has created a perception of governance in Bihar, and he'll use that as a poll plank. Both Laloo and Paswan realise that it is essential for them to get together to counter that,'' says Shaibal Gupta, Director, Asian Development Research Institute .

Seat-sharing talks between the RJD and LJP are still stuck over one seat and Paswan is bargaining hard.

''Lok Jan Shakti Party has its own vote bank. Whichever party the votebank goes with, the graph of that party rises from zero to hundred, " says Ram Vilas Paswan, Leader, Lok Jan Shakti Party.

In 1999 Paswan fought elections as a JD(U) candidate. NDA won 41 of the 54 seats.

But in 2004, Paswan switched sides. His new party LJP entered into alliance with RJD and Congress.
The UPA went onto win 29 of the 40 seats. Since then, Paswan has boasted of being kingmaker.

And so if Nitish is the king, Paswan the kingmaker, does Laloo have any option, but to hold onto the Queen?

Source : NDTV