End days for Lalu?

NEW DELHI: Split in the ``secular’’ camp, a perceptible improvement in the state government’s developmental track-record as well as the law and
order situation and chief minister Nitish Kumar’s attempts to woo the EBCs and maha-Dalits have given the electoral edge to the JD(U)-BJP combine in Bihar. With three phases gone, 37 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state have already tested the voters’ mood. While the NDA camp is upbeat, the ``secular’’ brigade, split three-ways among the RJD-LJP alliance, Congress and the Left parties, is not too sanguine about its prospects. In many ways, the 2009 general election might prove to be a turning-point in the state’s electoral history. Since the advent of Mr Lalu Prasad into Bihar’s political landscape in 1990s, all battles have figured the RJD strongman as the central force. It was always Lalu-Vs-the rest. That scenario might undergo a radical change in this round of Lok Sabha polls, with the Yadav chieftain struggling to retain his prominence. In the 2004 general election, the RJD-led secular camp, which also consisted of LJP, Congress, NCP and CPI, had stormed the state, bagging 29 of the 40 seats. JD(U) had to rest content with a mere 6 seats, while BJP was marginally only behind. With the ``secular’’ establishment in total disarray, the RJD-LJP combine is fighting hard to retain its strength. Their efforts, by all indications, have come a cropper. While there is no discernible aggression among the Muslims against the ruling NDA, there is nothing to indicate that they are voting enmasse for the RJD-LJP alliance. While they were seen to be rooting for Congress in Kishanganj and NCP in Katihar, their loyalties were split between RJD and Congress in Madhubani. ``The division in secular votes is working in our favour,’’ argued Bihar deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi. Also working too the NDA’s advantage was the developmental report of the state government, the marked improvement in the law and order situation in the state and the EBC consolidation its favour. ``While there was nothing positive in Mr Lalu Prasad’s case, we had everything going in our favour. While we had struck a perfect seat-sharing accord, the UPA was in tatters. There were 11 ministers in the central government from Bihar, and they were confronted with an anti-incumbency disadvantage,’’ the BJP leader said. As things stand, both Mr Lalu Prasad and LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan are on shaky ground. They may eventually emerge victorious in their constituencies, but their image as tall leaders will certainly be in jeopardy.