Nitish's popularity makes it advantage NDA in Bihar

NEW DELHI: The three-way split in the ‘secular’ camp, Nitish Kumar’s track record as chief minister and the absence of trust in RJD-LJP are
expected to give a clear edge to JD(U)-BJP combine in the state the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. In the 2004 general election, almost all parties opposed to NDA, with the exclusion of the CPI(ML)(L) and CPI, had come together on one platform in Bihar, which accounts for 40 Lok Sabha seats. RJD-LJP-Congress-NCP-CPM alliance won the electoral battle comfortably, bagging 29 seats with a total poll percentage of 45.1. NDA had to rest content with a mere 11 seats, with JD(U)’s share being 6. The combine’s vote-share was 36.93%.

The political situation in the state has undergone a radical change since. Not only is the Nitish Kumar government sitting pretty, with the chief minister himself logging a reasonably high popularity rating among the electorate despite having been at the helm for more than three years, the opposition camp is in disarray. While Congress has decided to go it alone, CPM has embraced the broader Left alliance. Realising that he was on a slippery ground, RJD chief Lalu Prasad joined hands with Ram Vilas Paswan by conceding 12 seats to LJP. The fact that the railway minister decided to part with 12 seats to his alliance partner in Bihar was taken as a sign of weakness in the RJD camp about its electoral prospects.

Mr Prasad’s anxiety to keep LJP president humoured is understandable. In November 2005 assembly polls, which catapulted Nitish Kumar to power in the state, the JD(U)-BJP combine’s vote-share fell marginally in comparison to the 2004 general election figures, but it still came out on top. The alliance logged 35.8%, registering a minor drop from the 36.93% vote-share secured by it in 2004. By contrast, RJD, which contested the November 2005 assembly poll in alliance with Congress, secured 29.2% votes, but ended up a poor third by winning 54 seats, one less than BJP. In the 2004 general election, Mr Yadav’s outfit, which had walked away with 22 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, had polled 30.67% votes.

LJP, which had tied up with CPI(ML)(L) and CPI for the assembly polls, cornered 10.8% votes. Not surprisingly, RJD supremo found it politically prudent to do business with LJP, jettisoning Congress, which has been over the years reduced to the status of a fringe player in the state. The three-way split in the anti-NDA vote is expected to help the JD(U)-BJP combine win a majority of seats. The Bihar chief minister has, in the interregnum, consolidated his alliance’s support base by taking important steps to empower the numerically-powerful, but politically emaciated EBCs and poorer sub-castes within the Dalit community (the maha-Dalits, as they’re called). By taking a series of measures aimed at ameliorating the lot of numerically-powerful Muslims, Nitish Kumar may have blunted their hostility towards an alliance which also comprises BJP.

Besides acquiring the image of being pre-development, Nitish Kumar has so far managed to retain his squeaky-clean image. The JD(U) strongman stands heads-and-shoulders above his rivals as far as personal integrity is concerned. The JD(U)-BJP alliance has run comfortably so far, and the two NDA partners have been able to strike a seat-sharing pact.

Source : Economic Times